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The number of dinosaurs caught by Wolf Chaltteokgi is 41!
🦕 The dinosaur is laughing at Wolf Chaltegi...
Next time, try faster!

Powerade Bora Mat caught 72 dinosaurs!
You have some good skills!
But aren't the real experts faster?

S1719928494448311 caught 37 dinosaurs!
🦕 The dinosaur is laughing at S1719928494448311...
Next time, try faster!

The number of dinosaurs caught by Nomo Manners is 104!
Top Ranker Mode ON 👑
But you mustn't let your guard down!

In fact, there may be users who are curious about the approximate probability of an emergency run.

To cut to the chase, it doesn't come out exactly.

But where does the probability that people often talk about come from?

I'm uploading this because I can answer the question.

If you look at it, the probability itself is about 0.66 and 0.17 for the covenant mystery. First, add them up and calculate (0.83)

Let's think about the probability of obtaining them individually later.

First of all, let me explain in advance that there are a total of 6 items that appear at once in an emergency run.

Let's assume that there are absolutely no duplicates of 6.

Then, we go into the probability calculations that you see in math workbooks, such as picking 6 marbles out of 100.

But since this isn't a marble, each individual probability is different, so it's a situation where it's affected by what you initially drew.

So it's not an exact calculation.

However, each item is so numerous that the impact of each one is small.

(If you go into individual probabilities, it doesn't have much of an impact except for the Bookmark of Friendship.)

Let's consider this.

Among the 100 marbles described above, there is one winner.

The probability of drawing 6 of them would be 1/100, 1/99, 1/98, 1/97, 1/96, 1/95, right?

Let's roughly estimate it as 1/100^6, because we don't know what items will come out.

And there may not be much difference between 1/100 and 1/95, but anyway, 1/100 has a lower probability.

The actual odds are a bit more favorable than what we're roughly calculating now.

If we go back to the calculation we originally wanted to do,

1- Probability of not getting it when drawing 6 times = probability of winning

1- 0.9917^6 = 0.0488 That's a slightly lower probability than 5 percent.

You get 3 sky stones in one go

3: 0.0488 = x : 1

If you roughly calculate it, you will use 61.48 sky stones.

The Mystery or Covenant bookmark appears once or twice.

If we calculate considering the ratio of 0.17 and 0.66,

Let's take a simpler look at it, roughly 20.5% and 79.5%.

0.795 : 61.48 = 1 : x

The probability of drawing 1 Covenant is approximately 77.3 Skystones.

Same feeling

The probability of drawing 1 Mystery is approximately 299.9 Skystones

As I said before, I set the probability of 6 low, so in reality it is higher.

Even from our experience, the number of Covenants 10 is roughly between 700 and 800.

Because it is definitely cheaper than the price of 950 Skystone sold in stores.

If you have enough gold, emergency runs are the way to go.

However, since this is only a probability, it may differ significantly from the expected value.

I think that judgment is entirely up to the individual.

I actually didn't really care about winning the event, but I'm so grateful that you contacted me.
From now on, I will have to actively participate in events whenever I have time!