Stove attendance today
I'm worried about writing material, so I'm writing here.
I don't have time to write right now, but I think I'll have time in a few days to write again, so I'm thinking of writing.
I have two writing ideas. One is an article introducing the games of Korean game companies (e.g., Nexon, NC, etc.) and their history.
The other is an article introducing indie game companies and their games.
Which one is better?
For the first one about the history of Korean game companies, there's a lot of material, but I'm worried if I can write it properly.
For introducing indie game companies, I'm worried about how to get the material since I'd need to contact the indie game companies directly.
If I were to post, which topic would you be more interested in?
mission!!
I'm begging you
I like bare hands so much that the balance is off
Please nerf them more than now~~
The past lost 2 years..
And completely excluded from this balance patch.
No matter how major the reorganization is planned, it's too disappointing to just wait without even an approximate schedule.
Hello Commander,
The regular maintenance on June 16, 2026, has concluded.
1. Excuse me. Will you hear my confession?
"Black Rose Blooming at Dawn Package" Released!
Don't miss out on the package that allows you to obtain Kousaka Shizuru's limited weapon, limited costume, and limited supporter!
※ Sales Period: Until July 21, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ The limited weapon "【UR】Thorn of Bitterness" can also be obtained through login bonuses, future guerrilla missions, and weekly missions.
※ The limited supporter "【UR】[Black Rose] Kousaka Shizuru" can also be obtained from the Shop of Wishes, future VR Shop updates, and seasonal events.
※ The acquisition methods for limited weapons and limited supporters are subject to change based on operational schedules.
※ Due to scheduling issues, the voice for supporter "【UR】[Black Rose] Kousaka Shizuru" will be updated at a later time.
1-1. In Commemoration of the "Black Rose Blooming at Dawn Package" Release!
Limited supporter "【UR】[Black Rose] Kousaka Shizuru" will be stocked in the Shop of Wishes.
※ Sales Period: Until June 30, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
2. Mikami Chizuru, Daima Stone Purchase Unlocked!
Purchase the playable character "Mikami Chizuru" with Daima Stones!
※ Price: 1,200 Daima Stones
3. Limited-Time Costume Revival Package Released!
A golden opportunity to obtain past limited-time costumes!
Don't miss the "Detective's Disguised Marriage Package," which includes Ran's limited-time costume "Jun Bride" and various materials!
Don't miss the "Detective's Disguised Marriage Package," which includes Ran's limited-time costume "Jun Bride" and various materials!
※ Sales Period: Until June 30, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
4. June Seasonal Event!
4-1. Attendance Event Part 2 Held!
Gifts for all users who log in every day!
A chance to obtain rewards such as the limited weapon "【UR】Thorn of Bitterness"!
Log in on 7 different days out of 21 days to receive various gifts!
※ Event Period: After June 16, 2026 Maintenance ~ July 7, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ Users who logged in before maintenance will be processed from June 16, 2026, 15:00 (UTC).
4-2. Event Missions & Event Campaign Part 3 Held!
During the seasonal event period, event missions and event campaigns will be held weekly!
Clear missions and receive rewards by taking advantage of the campaign benefits!
※ Please check in-game for detailed start times for each week.
◇ Event Missions
※ Period: Until June 23, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ Mission Content: Clear Event Quests
└ Mission Rewards: Costume Crafting Material Kit x 2 (10 clears), Blank Proof x 3 (20 clears), Crystal Shard x 3 (30 clears), Hot Spring Ticket x 2 (50 clears), Magatama Attribute Change Coin x 3 (70 clears), Flower Basket x 5 (100 clears), Gacha Coin x 2 (150 clears), Happy Flower Basket x 5 (200 clears)
◇ Event Campaign
※ Period: Until June 23, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ Campaign Benefits
└ Reduced AP Consumption for Event Quests
5. Revival Event "Web Drama Grand Operation ~Loving Telepathy~" Held!
Clear event stages to obtain event materials,
and exchange them for various rewards at the Exchange Shop!
※ Period: Until July 14, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ Exchange Shop Period: Until July 21, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ Exchange Shop Special Rewards: Weapon "【UR】Deadly Needle" (Tokiko), Weapon "【UR】Killer Sting" (Shizuru), Weapon "【UR】Pierce Terror" (Felicia)
※ For details about the event, please refer to the in-game description.
※ Event-exclusive materials cannot be used in subsequent events.
6. Pickup Gacha Held!
Pickup Gacha held, increasing the appearance rate of featured weapons!
Guaranteed rewards are given for performing gacha a certain number of times!
※ Pickup Targets (Limited) (Revival): Weapon "【UR】Deadly Needle" (Tokiko), Weapon "【UR】Killer Sting" (Shizuru), Weapon "【UR】Pierce Terror" (Felicia)
※ Pickup Gacha Period: Until July 14, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
7. Limited-Time Costume Revival!
5 types of limited-time costumes "Jun Bride" revived!
※ Revival Targets: "Brilliant Bride" (Emily), "Steel Bride" (Asuka), "Pure Love Oni Bride" (Kirara), "Eternal Devotion" (Ingrid), "Breeze Bride" (Nagi)
※ Sales Period: Until June 30, 2026, 01:59 (UTC)
※ The above costumes can only be purchased on platforms other than Google Play.
8. New Costumes Added!
1 new costume has been added to "Nurse Call"!
※ Added Target: "Nurse Ran" (Ran)
※ "Nurse Call" is a permanently available costume.
※ The above costume can only be purchased on platforms other than Google Play.
9. Inactive Account Deletion Notice
Inactive accounts that have not been used for a long time have been collectively deleted.
Please take this into consideration for your game usage.
◇ Inactive Account Conditions
Accounts that meet all of the following conditions will be classified as inactive accounts.
1. Among multiple accounts linked to a single device, all accounts except for the one that logged in last.
2. More than 7 days have passed since creation.
3. Commander Rank 4 or lower.
4. No continuation code issued and no account linkage performed.
5. Not a member of a Circle.
10. Game Improvements and Bug Fixes
└ Fixed an issue where the costume "Secret Night Shrine Maiden" for character "Chizuru" was displayed abnormally under certain conditions.
└ Fixed an issue related to Circle joining and kicking.
11. Cheating User Ban
To foster a healthy game environment, disciplinary actions have been taken against accounts found to be cheating.
The following 5 accounts are subject to sanctions due to this measure.
Depending on the stage of sanctions, some accounts may be permanently suspended.
***Er
***ας
***dboyy
***
***lyKanji
For any objections regarding the above measures, please contact support@gremorygames.com.
GREMORY GAMES will continue to strictly address actions that unfairly profit through dishonest means and practices, in order to protect the vast majority of honest users.
Thank you.
Tenebra appears in "Chaos Zero Nightmare"!
Check out Tenebra's fighting style and prepare for Chaos Entry!
I lost a lot of flakes gambling and after thinking about it, I realized it's better to just save them steadily rather than waiting for a win, so I've been saving, but they're not accumulating well.
I need to buy games too, so it's even tighter. Should I just gamble?
― "많이 응모하면 무조건 당첨?" 정말 그럴까요?
스토브(STOVE)에서 진행하는 이벤트에는 "중복 응모 가능한 이벤트"가 자주 있습니다.
📣 “중복 응모 가능! 많이 응모할수록 당첨 확률 UP!”
이 말, 들으면 괜히 손이 근질거리죠. 1번보다는 10번, 10번보다는 50번!
“많이 응모하면 무조건 당첨되겠지!” 하고 생각하지만…
여기엔 의외의 수학적 함정이 숨어 있습니다.
🎲 많이 응모하면 당첨 확률이 진짜로 올라갈까?
당연히 올라갑니다! 응모권이 많아지면 그만큼 뽑힐 확률도 올라가죠.
예를 들어 총 응모 횟수가 3,700회고, 그 중 50번을 내가 응모했다면?
그냥 나누면 “50개 중 10명 뽑히니까… 당첨 확률은 약 13.5%?”
이 계산도 틀린 건 아니지만, 정확하지도 않아요.
왜냐고요? 다른 사람들도 중복 응모했기 때문이에요.
실제로 이 경우의 ‘진짜 기대 확률’은, 산술 계산보다 1%가량 낮은 약 12.6%밖에 안 됩니다.
오히려 살짝 낮아지는 거죠. 그럼 100번 응모하면? 200번은?
100번 응모 → 당첨 확률 약 23.7%
<br>200번 응모 → 당첨 확률 약 41.8%
(계산의 편의를 위해 최대 값을 고정한 값이라, 실제로는 더 낮아집니다.)
맞습니다. 2배 많이 응모해도 당첨 확률은 2배 증가가 안됩니다!
응모권이 많아지면 많아질수록, ‘1개당 기여하는 당첨 확률’은 점점 떨어지는 특성이 있습니다. 이게 바로 “중복 응모의 함정”이죠.
📉 응모권 1장당 효과는 점점 줄어든다!?
한 번만 응모한 사람의 1장과, 500장 낸 사람의 1장은 ‘무게’가 다릅니다.
쉽게 말해, 처음 몇 장은 확률을 팍팍 올리지만
나중엔 거의 “물 한 방울 추가” 수준의 영향력밖에 없어요.
처음에 1장만 응모했을 때, 1%의 당첨 확률을 가질 수 있지만,
2장 응모한다고 2%가 아닌, 2%보다 더 낮은 확률을 갖게 되는 것이죠.
물론 전체 확률을 보면 당첨 확률은 올라가지만, 응모권 1장 마다의 기대 당첨율은 낮아지는 것이죠.
수학적으로 보면, 이건 “희박한 확률이 누적되면 어떻게 되는가”라는 흥미로운 문제인데요,
우리는 이걸 ‘포아송 근사’라는 도구로 재밌게 풀어볼 수 있습니다.
(…라고 말해도 몰라도 괜찮아요. 중요한 건 이런 흐름이 있다는 것!)
📚 희귀 확률의 계산에 사용되는 '프아송 근사'
이 '프아송 근사' 추측을 통해서 하나 더 게이머에게 중요한 확률의 함정을 알 수도 있습니다.
바로 "뽑기 확률"입니다. SSR의 확률이 0.1% 로 고지되어 있고, 실제로 시스템에도 0.1%로 설정되어 있더라도,
게이머가 체감하게 되는 확률은 더 낮습니다.
0.1%니깐, 1000번 뽑으면 100% 나오겠네? 라고 생각하기 쉽지만,
프아송 근사를 통해 우리가 실질적으로 느끼는 확률을 보면...
프아송 근사
P(적어도 1번)≈1−e ^(−λ)
여기서 𝜆=시도 횟수×뽑기 확률
🔍 해석 포인트 : 0.1% 확률이라면
100번 돌려도 90%의 사람들은 못 뽑습니다, 600번은 해줘야 반반입니다.
1000회를 뽑더라도 63.3% 확률 밖에 갖질 못합니다.
천장이 없던 시절에는, 표기값에도 불구하고 너무나 뽑기가 안나오는 것 같았던 이유도 여기에 있죠.
숫자 장난을 친 게 아니라, 희귀 확률에서의 기대 당첨값은 적혀있는 숫자보다 더 작기 때문입니다.
일부 가챠 방송에서, 수천만원을 녹여도 나오지 않는 이유가 여기에 있죠.
일부 가차 게임은 이런 확률도 고려해서 시스템을 설정하기도 하는데, 일반적으로는 그렇게까지는 안해줍니다 ㅠㅠ
그래서 우리가 하는 뽑기 게임은 기본적으로 "플레이어가 지는 게임"입니다.
🔚 정리하며
중복 응모는 확실히 이득입니다.
하지만 많이 낸다고 반드시 유리해지는 건 아닙니다.
특히 전체 응모 수가 많아질수록, "내 응모권 1장의 영향력"은 서서히 줄어들죠.
최대 응모 횟수를 분산해서, "계란을 한 바구니에 담지 말라"는 조언을 따르는 편이, 전체적인 당첨 확률은 높다는 것입니다.
그러니 응모도 적당히, 가챠도 적당히^^
크~ 이거 『수학』이네요.
아아.. 이것이 『수학』 이다.
ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
당첨 확률을 조금이라도 높이기 위한 발악입니다 ㅋㅋㅋ
뽑기의 확률은...
아무리 확률을 계산해도 결국은 운이죠 ㅠㅠ
ㄷㄷㄷㄷ 플레이크 올인해도 안될건 안되던 이유가ㅠㅠ
올인의 희생자가 ㅠㅠ
그런데 올인 해도 안되는 건, 정말 운이 없으셨던 거라 ㅠㅠ
좋은 정보!!!
아주 잘알고있습니다
bb
중복도 될놈될 안될안이라 걍 마음비우고하던지 아니면 아예 안하던지 해야되는듯 ㅎㅎ
맞습니다 ㅋㅋㅋ 어차피 될 사람은 1번 응모해도 당첨되고, 안될 사람은 올인해도 안되드라고요 ㅋㅋㅋ
응모도 투자도 언제나 분산으로...
안전한(?) 분산 응모로 당첨의 행운을 누리세요! ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
결론적으로 "가챠는 나쁜 문명이다" 이런거군요
가챠는 망해야 하는 문명! ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
막줄 추!
역시 적당한게 최고죠! ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
